Pokies Winner Certificate Of A Presidential Election

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We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November? Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out - for sure - [in] five keys. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton last week. One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key.

One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 per cent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 per cent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.

So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favour.

So this would also suggest, you know, the possibility this election could go either way. Nobody should be complacent, no matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote. Do you think the fact that Trump is not a traditional Republican - certainly not an establishment Republican, from a rhetorical or policy perspective - contributes to that uncertainty over where he fits in with the standard methodology for evaluating the Keys?

I think the fact that he's a bit of a maverick, and nobody knows where he stands on policy, because he's constantly shifting. I defy anyone to say what his immigration policy is, what his policy is on banning Muslims, or whoever, from entering the United States, that's certainly a factor. But it's more his history in Trump University, the Trump Institute, his bankruptcies, the charitable foundation, of enriching himself at the expense of others, and all of the lies and dangerous things he's said in this campaign, that could make him a precedent-shattering candidate.

It's interesting, I don't use the polls, as I've just explained, but the polls have very recently tightened. Clinton is less ahead than she was before, but it's not because Trump is rising, it's because Clinton is falling. He's still around 39 per cent in the polls. You can't win if you can't crack 40 per cent.

As people realise the choice is not Gary Johnson, the only choice is between Trump and Clinton, those Gary Johnson supporters may move away from Johnson and toward Clinton, particularly those millennials. One view is that the government did not trust voters to choose their candidate this time round, despite the fact that it was Mrs Halimah, a former union leader who had broad appeal and was aided by extensive and favourable coverage in Singapore's state-friendly media.

The government recently acknowledged the outrage by noting that the changes to the presidency might cost them "political capital", but argued it did what it had to do for "the future of the country". But some wonder if it has cost the country more.

Some, like the commentator Ms Henson, feel she is the "only good thing" in the whole episode and argue she is still "a decent person with a good heart", but others have accused her of complicity. She told reporters earlier this week: The House of Representatives backs the biggest tax overhaul for years and now the Senate will decide.

Continue Change settings Find out more. Asia selected China India. So why are Singaporeans not happy to get the president many wanted? Skip Twitter post by infernoxv come on. More on this story. Singapore PM Lee 'prefers not to sue siblings' over feud. Video Singapore artist tops 'comic book Oscars' nominations. Top Stories Republican tax bill faces final vote The House of Representatives backs the biggest tax overhaul for years and now the Senate will decide. Otherwise candidates would need to make an allegation of fraud or a serious error in the vote count to demand a recount, and Clinton has shown no signs that she is willing to do that.

Even though her concession speech is not legally binding and she could change her mind, no reported statement she has made indicates that she is leaning in that direction, or that she believes she lost do to vote fraud. Hypothetically, though, even if Clinton demanded recounts in Michigan and Pennsylvania and somehow won them both, she would still be two votes short of Wisconsin, which also finished in a razor-close race, could provide the electoral votes to put Clinton over , in this hypothetical scenario.

Donald Trump must appear in court prior to being inaugurated as president. Trump seems at least somewhat concerned about the trial. His lawyers filed a motion Saturday asking to put off the trial until Trump is safely inaugurated as the 45th U. The problem for Trump opponents, however, is that even in the Trump University lawsuit or in the other estimated 75 lawsuits Trump currently faces, he is facing only civil penalties — not criminal penalties.

While he may end up needing to compensate the victims of his alleged scam or even pay punitive damages, nothing in any of the legal actions would prevent him from assuming the presidency on January And even if he were hit with criminal charges, as president, he would have the authority to grant himself a complete and unconditional pardon , if he chooses to do so.

Millions of votes have not yet been counted, and final vote totals will not be known for weeks. While Clinton already holds a narrow but clear lead in the popular vote nationwide, California officials on Thursday reported that more than 4.

There were about 8. Outstanding, uncounted ballots also remain in other states, including Washington and New York. Again, however, the problem for Clinton supporters looking for a way that she can still win the election is simply that Clinton already won California, Washington and New York — by substantial margins.

Increasing her lead in those states will not bring her any new electoral votes, changing the results of the election and preventing Trump from taking the White House in January. You are commenting using your WordPress. You are commenting using your Twitter account.

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What about Donald Trump on the other side? He's not affiliated with the sitting party, but has his campaign been an enigma in terms of your ability to assess this election? Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others.

He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the US," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it.

We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us.

We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favour it.

We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November? Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out - for sure - [in] five keys. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton last week. One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key.

One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 per cent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 per cent.

My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats. So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. You will require a login to post on the forums and there are terms and conditions to take Ive had a problem with pokies for 15 years. Discover where to find 7 of your favourite pub pokies online, How long will it take to reach me in Australia?

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However, you can change your cookie settings at any time. These are external links and will open in a new window. A popular public figure, Mrs Halimah was widely expected to win the presidential election, but instead will begin her term amid controversy.

For starters, there hasn't been and won't be an election - she just got the job in a "walkover" because there were no other eligible candidates. Singaporeans are used to predictable elections, with the same party winning every parliamentary poll in the carefully managed country's year history, last time with a landslide.

It's partly due to loyalty to the ruling People's Action Party PAP , but also because the government tightly controls the media and political freedoms. As the head of state, the president plays a largely ceremonial role and doesn't hold much power, apart from having some say in the use of Singapore's hefty financial reserves.

Still, many were looking forward to exercising their vote this time round, and were angry to hear on Monday that Mrs Halimah was the only candidate. There were two other possible candidates in the running, businessmen Salleh Marican and Farid Khan. Mrs Halimah doesn't qualify under that rule either, but she made the cut because she used to be speaker in Singapore's parliament, and those who've held certain public office positions can qualify for the presidency.

End of Twitter post by infernoxv. It's a move that should be celebrated by Singapore, which prides itself on its multiculturalism and diversity. That's because this election was only open to Malay candidates - the first time the government has reserved an election for a particular race.

The government, which lauds its careful maintenance of national racial harmony, argued it was necessary to ensure minorities could have a chance at becoming president in Chinese-majority Singapore, which has always had an ethnically Chinese prime minister.

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That's because this election was only open to Malay candidates - the first time the government has reserved an election for a particular race.

The government, which lauds its careful maintenance of national racial harmony, argued it was necessary to ensure minorities could have a chance at becoming president in Chinese-majority Singapore, which has always had an ethnically Chinese prime minister.

But some Malays saw the move as positive discrimination that went against Singapore's golden rule of meritocracy, which is that the best person gets the job, regardless of background. It also stirred up questions about Malay racial purity, after people realised Mrs Halimah was half-Indian, and many have mocked her ethnicity. The irony is that Singapore's government has often clamped down on such discussion, fearing it would hurt racial harmony.

While some Singaporeans are delighted to see Mrs Halimah in office, others are unhappy at what they say is overt manipulation of the process by the government. Some believe the government deliberately took measures to block former presidential candidate Tan Cheng Bock, who came very close to defeating the government's man at the last election and who wanted to contest again.

One view is that the government did not trust voters to choose their candidate this time round, despite the fact that it was Mrs Halimah, a former union leader who had broad appeal and was aided by extensive and favourable coverage in Singapore's state-friendly media. The government recently acknowledged the outrage by noting that the changes to the presidency might cost them "political capital", but argued it did what it had to do for "the future of the country".

But some wonder if it has cost the country more. Some, like the commentator Ms Henson, feel she is the "only good thing" in the whole episode and argue she is still "a decent person with a good heart", but others have accused her of complicity.

She told reporters earlier this week: The House of Representatives backs the biggest tax overhaul for years and now the Senate will decide. Continue Change settings Find out more. Asia selected China India. So why are Singaporeans not happy to get the president many wanted? Skip Twitter post by infernoxv come on. More on this story. Singapore PM Lee 'prefers not to sue siblings' over feud. Video Singapore artist tops 'comic book Oscars' nominations. Top Stories Republican tax bill faces final vote The House of Representatives backs the biggest tax overhaul for years and now the Senate will decide.

The conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Can you tell me about the keys, and how you use them to evaluate the election from the point where - I assume it's very murky a year or two out, and they start to crystallise over the course of the election. The Keys to the White House is an historically-based prediction system. I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from to , and have since used the system to correctly predict the outcomes of all eight American presidential elections from to And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House.

And if six or more of the 13 keys are false - that is, they go against the party in power - they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years. Why is that wrong? It absolutely does not mean the Democrats are a shoo-in. First of all, one of my keys is whether or not the sitting president is running for reelection, and right away, they are down that key.

Another one of my keys is whether or not the candidate of the White House party is, like Obama was in , charismatic. Hillary Clinton doesn't fit the bill. They keys have nothing to do with presidential approval polls or horse-race polls, with one exception, and that is to assess the possibility of a significant third-party campaign.

What about Donald Trump on the other side? He's not affiliated with the sitting party, but has his campaign been an enigma in terms of your ability to assess this election? Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others.

He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the US," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it.

We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections.

We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favour it.

We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November? Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out - for sure - [in] five keys.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton last week. One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 per cent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 per cent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.

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There was a lever or pedal in the box. When the rat hit the lever a small pellet of food came out like a pokie machine and coins. The rat learnt that by pressing the lever it got a treat which acted as positive reinforcement. Now came the sneaky part. If every time the rat hit the lever it got a treat, that would be the end of it - it would just hit the lever whenever it was hungry.

Enter the concept of intermittent reinforcement. Simply put, it meant that the rewards pellets were dispensed on a random schedule - sometimes the rat got none, sometimes a few, sometimes a lot of pellets sounding familiar yet? The rat never knew when it was going to get a pellet so it kept pushing that lever, over and over, and over, and over, even if none came out. This is the psychological principle that slot machines operate on and how they can work on you.

Often the main graphic on the top box will feature a character with an attractive pair of eyes staring or winking right at you. This technique is used by designers to grab your attention and pull you into the machine. Game developers design pokies to keep a rhythmic pace. Each spin carries a degree of risk for the player, but a steady tempo of clicks and music gives an illusion of predictability.

A constant soothing tempo can give the player an impression that they have a degree of control over the machine when they really don't. Dopamine is a chemical in your brain that helps to create an expectation of future rewards.

Dopamine neurons light up when they spot a pattern that could lead to pleasure. Dopamine is useful for signalling things that may be good for us. For example, dopamine levels spike if we get a surprise like an unexpected compliment from someone we like, or when we get a bite on a fishing line. Conversely, when there are no patterns or hopes for a future reward, dopamine levels will drop and we lose interest.

But pokie machines can distort our expectations. The graphics and sounds give the impression that we are always on the verge of winning. This keeps our dopamine neurons in an artificial state of stimulation.

This false sense of expectation prevents some players from stopping even though they really should. Did you know that when the brain of a pokies addict is scanned while playing a pokie machine we actually see dopamine neurons light up in the same way as a person with a cocaine addiction? When dopamine is overstimulated, we start to crave activities that aren't always in our best interests. You can play pokies much faster than other types of gambling.

You don't have to wait for horses to run, a dealer to shuffle or deal, or a roulette wheel to stop spinning. As players grow in experience, there can be a tendency to increase the speed of play. However, unlike other skill based games, speed of play is not a sign of mastery.

It just means you are likely to lose faster. Designers have come to realise that forcing gamblers to play faster or slower than their natural tempo creates frustration. To get around this some machines are sophisticated enough to adjust their tempos to match the player's preferred groove.

Pokie machines are tailored with different graphics to appeal to different players. Whether the theme is motor racing, farming, adventure or fantasy, the animations play like "mini movies" - pulling you into the world of the pokie machine.

All games start their lives as a spreadsheet, and that's basically what you are playing. The random number generator RNG comes up with approximately combinations per second. These generated numbers, of which there are typically between one-to-four billion possibilities, are then fed through a set of rules that converts them into stops on the microprocessor's "virtual reel".

It doesn't matter what the previous outcomes of the machine were. Each button push is completely independent of the last one. You're not the only one! Old school pokie machines had only one payline. New machines allow you to bet on more than one payline at a time. These paylines may run horizontally across the screen, diagonally or even in zig zags! In , some machines introduced 50 paylines. In they introduced lines!

This complexity makes it difficult some would say impossible for players to keep track of the logic of winning. If you choose to play multi-lines, the odds are that the games will pay out more frequently but usually for less than the amount of the initial bet. This gives you the sense that you are winning all the time. But are you really? Machine designers space out the buttons on the console ergonomically so that you don't even need to move your hand to push the buttons. Incidentally, this results in faster play!

It may come as a surprise for some people that there are no mechanical reels spinning around the modern pokie machine. Behind the scenes is a random number generator RNG which then uses a program to map onto virtual reels.

The stops on the virtual reels are then mapped to reel graphics you see on the video screen. Many of your wins on a modern pokie machine are actually net losses.

This is enabled by multi-line betting. However, the machine is likely to celebrate that win with positive graphics and sounds. Machines commonly use positive sounding music in a major key to hold your attention.

This may lift your spirits and provide an escape from negative thoughts. With a win you're likely to hear coins dropping or people celebrating This is because game designers do not want to reinforce a loss that could cause you to rethink how much you are losing and whether or not you should continue to play.

The presence of multiple machines in a venue produces a continuous chatter of winning sounds. These may condition your brain into thinking a win is on its way, even though it's just as unlikely as the last spin.

A range of buttons allow you to select the number of pay lines and the number of coins you bet on each line. These options give you an interactive experience and can give you the illusion of skill. The truth is that no combination of button pushes will increase your odds of winning. The odds of winning the top prize on a pokie machine may vary from 1 in 40 thousand to 1 in 33 million.

For example, take the game Black Rhinos — if you are playing one line at a time it would take 6. Each machine is programmed to take in more that it pays out. So the longer you play, the higher the chances are that you will lose. The outcome of each spin is random. So in the short term, you could take a bigger win or experience a bigger loss. The more time you spend playing, the more likely it is that your money will gradually reduce to almost zero.

Machines are programmed to give you a feeling that there is a degree of skill involved. But in reality, there is no action you can take that will increase your odds of winning on any spin.

In short, there are no techniques to trick or cheat it. To illustrate, you may have a feeling that you have control over the machine because:. Every spin is purely random. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. The conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Can you tell me about the keys, and how you use them to evaluate the election from the point where - I assume it's very murky a year or two out, and they start to crystallise over the course of the election.

The Keys to the White House is an historically-based prediction system. I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from to , and have since used the system to correctly predict the outcomes of all eight American presidential elections from to And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false - that is, they go against the party in power - they lose.

If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years. Why is that wrong? It absolutely does not mean the Democrats are a shoo-in. First of all, one of my keys is whether or not the sitting president is running for reelection, and right away, they are down that key. Another one of my keys is whether or not the candidate of the White House party is, like Obama was in , charismatic.

Hillary Clinton doesn't fit the bill. They keys have nothing to do with presidential approval polls or horse-race polls, with one exception, and that is to assess the possibility of a significant third-party campaign.

What about Donald Trump on the other side? He's not affiliated with the sitting party, but has his campaign been an enigma in terms of your ability to assess this election?

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the US," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it.

We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections.

We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us.

We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favour it. We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November? Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory.

Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out - for sure - [in] five keys. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton last week. One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 per cent of the vote or more.

In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 per cent.

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